Issue #289 | Buying Time - November 12, 2026
Subdial heads west, Fossil finds its footing, and an $80,000 Freak meets a $20,501 reality check.
Buying Time in 53 Seconds - or so
Subdial has raised $20 million to expand its British business and establish a substantial American operation in 2027, giving the secondary market another well-funded contender. Fossil, meanwhile, has returned to quarterly profitability, with traditional watches doing much of the heavy lifting.
Today’s new releases stretch from Tangens’ accessible Danish design and Maen’s jumping hours to the elaborate handwork of Garrick and Renaud Tixier. TAG Heuer and Time+Tide return with a titanium Sundowner, while Sartory-Billard puts Tanzanian glassmaking—and the people behind it—at the center of its latest collaboration.
Elsewhere, Anita Porchet explains the unforgiving art of enamel, an overlooked Seiko offers vintage character without a vintage Rolex invoice, and an Apple Watch threatens the daily relevance of an entire mechanical collection. At auction, yesterday’s Ulysse Nardin Freak failed to sell after reaching just over a quarter of its stated retail price. Tonight, a 2026 white-gold Rolex Daytona gets its turn.
Time Graphing Today’s Watch Universe
The Watch Has a Story. The Buyer Has a Calculator.
The watch industry is exceptionally good at explaining why something should be valuable. Heritage. Innovation. Scarcity. Hand finishing. A relationship with an artist, an athlete, a navy, or possibly a very particular shade of blue. Today’s issue contains excellent examples of nearly all of them. What makes it interesting is the competing question running underneath: How much of that explanation survives when somebody actually has to pay?
Start with Subdial, which has secured $20 million to expand in Britain and enter the United States. This is money going into the machinery of buying and selling watches: inventory, technology, people, and a planned American operation. Co-founder Christy Davis is moving across the Atlantic to help build it. That is a substantial vote of confidence in the idea that collectors want a better way to transact, and that making ownership easier to enter—and easier to exit—can enlarge the market.
There is a useful distinction here. A manufacturer sells the promise of a watch. A secondary-market business has to keep negotiating what that promise is worth after the first owner has enjoyed it. Those conversations are not always conducted in the same language.
Yesterday’s Ulysse Nardin auction supplied a particularly blunt translation. An $80,000 Freak ONE Guilloché, limited to 99 pieces, attracted a high bid on Bezel of $20,501 and failed to meet reserve. That is 74.4% below its stated list price. It is not a completed transaction, and it does not establish the value of every Freak ever produced. But it is an awkward result for anyone who assumes that technical distinction and a small production number automatically create a deep queue of buyers. Apparently, “only 99 made” still leaves the question of how many people want this particular one at the seller’s price.
None of that makes ambitious watchmaking less interesting. It makes the reason for buying it more important.
Consider Renaud Tixier’s Monday Skeleton, which turns an already unusual winding system into something its owner can actually examine. Or Garrick’sS8, with production limited to five watches a year and an extraordinary amount of finishing concentrated inside a slim case. These are watches for people who care about the decisions a watchmaker makes with a file, a bridge, or an awkward internal angle. Their appeal is specific. That specificity can be wonderful on the wrist, even when it makes resale a more specialized conversation.
Sartory-Billard approaches the same question from another direction. Its Shanga collaboration puts handcrafted Tanzanian glass on the dial and directs part of each sale toward artisan development. The appeal is visible, personal, and tied to an identifiable workshop. Likewise, Anita Porchet’s account of grand feu enamel makes clear that craftsmanship is not simply an adjective printed between “exceptional” and “exclusive.” It is work that can crack in a kiln after consuming a considerable portion of somebody’s life.
Collectors are entitled to value that. They should also understand what they are valuing.
At the other end of the price spectrum, today’s affordable-watch comparisonmakes an almost impolite point: a roughly $50 Casio can already deliver a remarkable amount of useful watch. Spending more brings different experiences and capabilities, but the improvements do not march upward in perfect formation with the price. The Citizen offers solar convenience and serious diving credentials. The Seiko supplies mechanical engagement. Your preference determines which improvement matters.
That is also why the “Upside-Down Arnie” deserves a place in this conversation. Here is a distinctive vintage Seiko, generally priced in the hundreds rather than the tens of thousands, with genuine character and genuine maintenance considerations. There is no need to invent an investment thesis. Finding a working example you enjoy is already a perfectly respectable collecting strategy.
Even Fossil’s return to profitability fits the theme. Traditional watches are helping drive its recovery, supported by better margins, lower costs, and less discounting. The lesson is refreshingly practical: make products people want, sell them with some discipline, and keep enough of the proceeds to operate the business. Complicated, apparently, but still possible.
Then an Apple Watch enters the room and asks why you are wearing any of this to begin with. Today’s video about the Ultra 4 is a reminder that collectors can admire mechanical watches while repeatedly choosing something else in the morning. Sentiment gets a seat at the table. Convenience gets one too.
Tonight’s white-gold Rolex Daytona offers another test of how recognition, condition, and price interact. It arrives with a familiar name, a current movement, and a much broader audience than many experimental watches can reach. That helps. It does not eliminate the need to inspect the watch or calculate the purchase.
The useful thread through today’s issue is that value has several meanings, and trouble starts when we casually substitute one for another. Craft value, personal value, utility, retail price, and resale value can coexist without agreeing.
Buy the story you actually care about. Just make sure you know which part of it you are paying for.
-Michael Wolf
News
Subdial’s Christy Davis on the $20 Million Raise—and Moving to America
Subdial co-founder Christy Davis plans to relocate to the United States to lead the pre-owned watch company’s expansion, backed by a $20 million financing package and annualized trading activity approaching $100 million. Profitable since early 2026, the business sees better trading experiences and deeper inventory as opportunities to bring more collectors into the secondary market. Go Deeper
Fossil Returns to Profit as Traditional Watches Lead the Recovery
Fossil Group reported third-quarter net income of $11.7 million, reversing a $39.9 million loss a year earlier, as analogue watch sales rose 6.4% and Fossil-branded watch sales increased 13.6%. Lower costs, reduced discounting, and improved sourcing helped lift operating margin to 9.3%, although leather goods and jewelry remained weak. Go Deeper
Subdial’s US Plans Include Local Inventory and a Clubhouse
The financing combines Series B equity led by Gresham House Ventures with a debt facility expected to close shortly, supporting a substantial American launch in 2027. Plans include locally sourced inventory, a significant US team, and a Clubhouse likely in New York, while shared technology will connect the American and British operations. Go Deeper
Feature
Seiko’s “Upside-Down Arnie” Offers Vintage Muscle Without the Movie-Star Premium
The mid-1980s Seiko H601-5480 combines a 45mm shrouded case with an ana-digi display whose reversed screen placement distinguishes it from the better-known H558 Arnie. Typical prices of $400–$550 make it an accessible collectible, but a tested movement and intact resin shroud matter considerably more than a flattering listing photograph. Go Deeper
Anita Porchet and the Beautifully Unforgiving Business of Grand Feu Enamel
Master enameller Anita Porchet describes a craft in which repeated firings above 800°C can transform colors, introduce cracks, or erase weeks of painstaking work. Her experience creating dials for leading watchmakers reveals why genuine enamel commands such respect—and why keeping the tradition alive requires collectors who understand what they are seeing. Go Deeper
Eliud Kipchoge’s Custom Watch Takes Lightweight Seriously
Artisans de Genève’s bespoke Feather creation for Eliud Kipchoge weighs just 57 grams, combining a Titalum case, sapphire components, and a modified skeletonized manual-winding movement. Kenyan flag colors and a red lightning-bolt chronograph hand give the project a personal identity alongside its emphasis on athletic performance. Go Deeper
Independent Watchmaking’s Future Has More Than One Address
A new generation of independent makers is pursuing original escapements, unconventional cases, and deeply personal approaches to movement architecture and finishing. The breadth of talent—including a growing Chinese presence—suggests that contemporary independent watchmaking is becoming more geographically diverse as well as mechanically adventurous. Go Deeper
Audemars Piguet Gives Code 11.59 More to Say
Audemars Piguet’s latest Code 11.59 releases span contrasting pink-gold 38mm automatics, a ceramic-and-white-gold flying tourbillon, and an openworked perpetual calendar introducing Calibre 7139. The collection continues to develop into a platform for ambitious mechanisms, including crown-operated calendar correction and a hand-fitted non-magnetic balance spring. Go Deeper
The Seiko Astron That Stays Even When It Rarely Gets Worn
The 2012 Astron GPS Solar SAST001 remains compelling for its pioneering technology, elaborate dial, and surprisingly wearable titanium construction despite its substantial 47mm diameter. Its owner’s attachment illustrates a familiar collecting truth: historical significance and personal memories can outlast a watch’s place in the regular rotation. Go Deeper
Moon Phases Explained—Including the Part Where You Set One
Traditional moon-phase mechanisms approximate the lunar cycle with a 59-tooth wheel, generally requiring correction about every three years, while more elaborate systems extend that interval considerably. Setting procedures vary, so consult the watch’s instructions and avoid making adjustments while its calendar mechanism is engaged. Go Deeper
New Watches
Converted dollar prices are approximate, using November 11 reference exchange rates. They retain the original listing’s tax treatment and may differ from official US retail prices.
TAG Heuer Aquaracer Professional 300 × Time+Tide Sundowner II
The Sundowner II moves the collaboration into automatic territory with a 42mm sandblasted Grade 2 titanium case, rose-tone accents, and a black wave-pattern dial without a date. Its COSC-certified TH31-01 movement delivers an 80-hour power reserve, while a gray ceramic bezel and 300-meter water resistance preserve the Aquaracer’s diving credentials. Production comprises 450 watches on black rubber and just 50 on a titanium bracelet, both with a clasp offering tool-free micro-adjustment. Price: US$5,100 on rubber; US$5,750 on titanium bracelet. Go Deeper
Moritz Grossmann Benu 1878
Moritz Grossmann marks its founder’s 200th birthday and the revived company’s 18th anniversary with a dial depicting the German School of Watchmaking in three-dimensional relief. The 41mm stainless steel watch houses the hand-wound calibre 100.1, combining traditional Glashütte finishing with a 42-hour power reserve. Limited to 26 pieces, it comes on brown kudu leather and makes its historical tribute considerably more tangible than another anniversary inscription on a caseback. Price: approximately US$42,840, excluding tax. Go Deeper
Hublot Big Bang Soldier All Black
Created with artist Leonard Iheagwam, known as Soldier, this 42mm ceramic chronograph incorporates silhouetted toy soldiers across its bezel and dial, plus a soldier-shaped small-seconds hand. The automatic HUB1280 supplies a 72-hour power reserve, while the watch offers 100-meter water resistance and comes with a fabric strap and two additional rubber straps. Limited to 50 pieces, it uses Hublot’s All Black aesthetic to explore migration, identity, and childhood perceptions of conflict, although its dark presentation makes legibility part of the compromise. Price: approximately US$30,470, converted from the quoted UK price. Go Deeper
Sartory-Billard SB04-E Shanga
The SB04-E Shanga centers on a deep-blue glass dial handcrafted in Arusha, Tanzania, where folded pigment creates an individual swirling pattern. Handwritten numerals and Maasai-spear-inspired hands bring further human detail to the 39.5mm steel watch, which uses a La Joux-Perret G101A automatic movement with a 68-hour reserve. The 100-piece collaboration supports Shanga’s work with local artisans and people with disabilities, with roughly US$1,205 from each sale allocated to its artisan skills development program. Price: approximately US$5,340, excluding VAT. Go Deeper
Maen Grand Tonneau Jump Hour
Maen brings its Grand Tonneau Jump Hour into the permanent collection following the earlier collaboration with Nico Leonard. A 34mm-wide, 9.7mm-thick steel tonneau case frames a jumping-hour aperture and rotating minute disc, with Steel, Anthracite Black, Midnight Blue, and Copper dial choices. The modified automatic Seagull ST1721 offers approximately 38 hours of power reserve, and sales begin December 10 with a black FKM rubber strap included. Price: approximately US$1,000, including the quoted European VAT. Go Deeper
Garrick S8
Garrick’s S8 packs an extensively skeletonized manual-winding movement into a restrained 39mm case measuring just 8mm thick. Hand-finished bridges and wheels, black polishing, and sharp internal angles provide the visual substance, while approximately 60 hours of power reserve and 100-meter water resistance add everyday practicality. Each watch takes about eight weeks to finish and assemble, with customization available and production limited to five pieces annually. Price: approximately US$79,175 in stainless steel or US$97,140 in precious metal, including the taxes quoted in the original prices. Go Deeper
Renaud Tixier Monday Skeleton
The Monday Skeleton opens up Renaud Tixier’s micro-rotor architecture to reveal its auxiliary winding system, including a platinum inertia flywheel and “dancer” propulsion spring. The 40.8mm white-gold case contains a movement with 238 interior angles, a 72-hour power reserve, and a color-matched enamel ratchet-wheel cover. Production is limited to 30 watches, divided equally between blue and green versions, with a hand-engraved caseband completing the elaborate presentation. Price: approximately US$155,450, excluding taxes. Go Deeper
Tangens Komposition Automatic Storm
Tangens adds dusty blue and dusty purple dials to its Komposition Automatic range, drawing inspiration from Denmark’s autumn skies. The matte finish gives the Storm editions a softer appearance inside the collection’s 38mm steel case, while luminous hands, applied markers, and a no-date display keep the layout straightforward. A Miyota 9039 automatic movement supplies approximately 42 hours of power reserve, accompanied by a sapphire crystal and 100-meter water resistance. Price: approximately US$522, including the taxes quoted in the European price. Go Deeper
Urwerk UR-101 Green Mamba
Urwerk revisits its foundational UR-101 design with a matte black PVD-coated steel case and an emerald-green wandering-hours display. Two rotating hour satellites travel across the semicircular minute scale, giving the 41mm watch its distinctive alternative to conventional hands. The automatic UR-1.01V movement offers 48 hours of power reserve, and the 50-piece edition comes on a black rubber strap lined with calfskin. Price: approximately US$39,765, excluding taxes. Go Deeper
Panerai Marina Militare Submersible PAM01757 and PAM01758
Panerai expands its military-inspired Submersible collection with two steel models offering black ceramic bezel inserts, textured black dials, and 500-meter water resistance. The 44mm PAM01757 Destro moves the crown to the left and uses the automatic P.980, while the 42mm PAM01758 adds a date and independently adjustable 24-hour GMT hand with the P.900/GMT24H movement. Both include leather and rubber straps, Maiale submarine caseback engravings, and annual production caps rather than numbered limited editions. Price: approximately US$13,685 for the PAM01757 and US$14,130 for the PAM01758. Go Deeper
Comparisons
The Affordable Dive-Watch Test: Casio vs. Seiko vs. Citizen
At roughly $50, $200, and $350 respectively, the Casio Duro, Seiko 5 SRPD51, and Citizen Promaster Eco-Drive demonstrate that spending more changes the ownership experience without improving every specification. Citizen earns the overall nod for solar convenience and certified diving capability, Casio wins on sheer value, and Seiko remains the choice for buyers who want mechanical involvement. Go Deeper
Five Rolex Models Worth Looking Past the Usual Suspects For
The Turn-O-Graph, Explorer II 16570, Oysterquartz Datejust, Milgauss, and Cellini Danaos offer distinctive alternatives to the most heavily pursued Rolex references. Condition, originality, service history, bracelet wear, and—in the Oysterquartz’s case—battery leakage deserve careful attention before an overlooked model becomes an expensive discovery. Go Deeper
Review
Christopher Ward C1 Jump Hour XV: A Refined Return to the JJ01
Christopher Ward’s 39mm C1 Jump Hour XV revisits its original jumping-hour design with a textured silver dial, blue minute hand, and a prominent hour window powered by the JJ01 module. The 300-piece edition sold out at $2,495 on leather or $2,695 on a bracelet, leaving secondary-market buyers to decide how much its traditional elegance is worth to them. Go Deeper
Panerai’s Marina Militare Pair Balances Military Character With Everyday Use
The PAM01757 Destro combines a left-side crown and clean dial, while the smaller PAM01758 adds a practical GMT function and date. Both deliver 500-meter water resistance and three-day power reserves, with the review favoring their robust capability and recognizable Panerai character while noting the GMT’s busier display. Go Deeper
Podcast
The Business of Watches: Inside the GPHG Jury With Mark Kauzlarich
Hodinkee senior editor Mark Kauzlarich discusses his first experience serving on the GPHG jury, explaining the deliberations, voting, and significance of the awards. His Geneva observations also encompass watchmaker visits, a record auction weekend, and the question of how the competition might attract broader industry participation.
Watching Time
The Apple Watch Ultra 4 Broke My Watch Collection — YoureTerrific
A mechanical-watch collector confronts the awkward reality of repeatedly choosing the Apple Watch, with a pointed detour into why luxury brands could learn something from Apple’s straps.
How A. Lange & Söhne Became a Chronograph Powerhouse — Revolution Watch
Anthony de Haas and Wei Koh trace Lange’s chronograph development from the Datograph through its increasingly ambitious split-seconds mechanisms and the Odysseus Chronograph.
Gen X: Stop Waiting, Buy the Damn Watch — That Watch Girl
Six men reflect on finally buying the watches they wanted after decades of work, family obligations, and treating “someday” as a perfectly acceptable purchasing schedule.
Best Watches That Go With Every Outfit You Own — Scott Adam Lancaster
Eleven candidates for a versatile watch collection make the case for choosing something that works across occasions rather than requiring its own wardrobe department.
Inside Subdial’s $20 Million Raise — Subdial
Christy Davis and Ross Crane discuss growing from a kitchen-table idea into a substantial watch-trading business, with price transparency, repeat customers, and a planned New York clubhouse central to the next chapter.
The Military Connection: Panerai’s New Marina Militare Submersibles — Monochrome Watches
A closer look at the Destro PAM01757 and GMT PAM01758 connects their modern diving specifications and distinctive layouts to Panerai’s long relationship with the Italian Navy.
Eric Wind’s Vintage Daytona, Tudor Submariner, and Collecting Philosophy — Watch Roll
Wind Vintage founder Eric Wind discusses watches with personal and historical substance, including a manually wound Daytona 6265 and a Tudor Submariner previously owned by a US Navy serviceman.
Auction Report
An $80,000 Freak Meets Reality. Tonight, the Daytona Takes the Stand.
Yesterday’s November 11 auction ended with the 2026 Ulysse Nardin Freak ONE Guilloché, reference 2403-500LE-4A-GUI/3A, bid to $20,501 without meeting reserve. Against its stated $80,000 list price, that is a $59,499 gap, or 74.4% below retail. Limited to 99 pieces, the titanium-and-beige Freak offers plenty of mechanical distinction, but the bidding audience declined to finance the full explanation. One unsuccessful auction cannot condemn the entire Freak collection, and the undisclosed reserve prevents calculating how narrowly—or spectacularly—the seller’s actual minimum was missed. It does, however, demonstrate that rarity and an ambitious retail price are separate things from resale demand.
Tonight’s November 12 Bezel auction presents a 2026 Rolex Cosmograph Daytona, reference 126519LN-0002, with a 40mm white-gold case, black Cerachrom bezel, bright-black dial with contrasting steel-colored counters, and black Oysterflex bracelet. It belongs to the Daytona generation introduced in 2023 with the automatic calibre 4131 and approximately 72 hours of power reserve. The broader Daytona story began in 1963 as a racing chronograph, while Oysterflex joined the precious-metal range in 2017. Its flexible metal blades beneath an elastomer exterior explain why Rolex insists on calling it a bracelet, even if most observers see a very expensive rubber strap.
For valuation, this particular black-dial configuration deserves its own comparison rather than being lumped together with silver-dial or meteorite versions. WatchCharts’ November 7 estimate of €40,270 translates to approximately $44,810 at November 11 reference exchange rates, with its indicated pre-owned dealer level translating to roughly $47,960. Those are useful benchmarks rather than guaranteed proceeds or an appraisal of this exact watch; a reasonable working comparison is therefore the mid-to-upper $40,000s, adjusted for condition, completeness, and the terms of purchase.
This US-located example includes its box, papers, product literature, and hangtags. The dial is described as excellent, with minor wear to the case, bezel, and bracelet; its general pre-owned classification leaves open whether it has previously been serviced or polished, rather than confirming either. Inspect the photographs for softened case edges, bezel damage, clasp wear, and the fit and condition of the Oysterflex sections before allowing the Daytona name to do all the thinking. The auction ends today, Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 8:50 p.m. EST—a useful opportunity to see what buyers will actually commit when the watch is familiar and the money is their own.
Current bid: $28,500
Losing Time
Just A Few of Today’s Big Losers at Auction on Grailzee
Four Watches, Zero Deals: The Asking Price Meets the Audience
There is the price a seller wants, and then there is the awkward moment when bidders are invited to participate. These four failed watch sales produced a combined $17,200 in high bids against $34,245 in asking prices—a 49.8% shortfall. Collectively, the bidders offered about half the sellers’ expectations. Nobody appears to have appreciated the motivational pricing.
The 2015 Hublot Big Bang Unico “All Black” Limited Edition, a 45mm skeleton-dial model on rubber, carried an $11,995 ask but attracted a final bid of $5,200. That left a $6,795 gap, or 56.6% below asking—the largest percentage miss of the four. “All Black” proved an appropriate description for everything except the seller’s hoped-for proceeds. Limited production may restrict supply, but it apparently cannot compel demand.
The Hublot Big Bang Aero Bang, a 44mm skeleton-dial model on rubber with no year supplied, followed much the same script. Its $10,000 asking price met a $4,700 high bid, leaving it $5,300 short, or 53.0% below asking. Two Hublots, two bids below half the requested price. Within this small group, that is a fairly consistent message: the sellers were pricing exclusivity, while the bidders were pricing an opportunity.
The 2026 Omega Seamaster Planet Ocean 600M, the substantial 45.5mm grey-dial model on rubber, asked $8,000 and reached $4,550. The $3,450 shortfall amounted to 43.1% below asking. Six hundred meters of water resistance is impressive, although it offers limited protection when the asking price goes overboard. Even a current-year watch from an established name still needs a price that brings buyers aboard.
The 2026 Tudor Pelagos FXD Chrono “Alinghi Red Bull Racing Edition”, with its 43mm case, blue dial and textile strap, came closest to a meeting of minds. Its $2,750 high bid fell $1,500 short of the $4,250 ask, or 35.3% below asking. That earns Tudor the distinction of being the least unsuccessful sale here. The sailing pedigree and racing sponsorship supplied plenty of speed; getting buyer and seller across the same finish line remained a problem.
The useful conclusion is that seller expectations substantially exceeded demonstrated bidding interest in all four auctions, with the two Hublots showing the widest disconnect. The Tudor attracted the strongest bid relative to its ask, followed by the Omega. That does not establish a market-wide brand ranking, but it does show where these particular bidders were willing to stretch—and where they stopped.
Closing Time
Today’s issue travels from a $50 Casio to watches whose finishing requires weeks of concentrated work. There is room to enjoy all of it, provided the pleasure belongs to you and the price makes sense to you.
Thanks for spending part of your day with BuyingTime. Wear something you like tomorrow. It has already spent enough time waiting in the box.
