The Watch Market Is Recovering—Selectively
The secondary watch market’s recovery hit a speed bump in October, with the WatchCharts Overall Market Index falling 0.8%. Rolex declined 1.1%, Patek Philippe slipped 0.4%, and Audemars Piguet edged up 0.2%. That does not erase the broader recovery: the overall index remains 7.5% higher over the past year, with Patek leading the major brands at 15.6%. But it does suggest buyers are becoming more selective about which watches deserve another price increase.
According to WatchCharts’ November update, roughly half the tracked brands with average secondary prices above $3,000 gained during October. Independents Ming, up 3.1%, and Parmigiani Fleurier, up 1.7%, led the month, while Omega finished last with a 1.7% decline. Rolex’s weak showing followed another near-bottom ranking in September. The biggest name in watches still commands attention, but attention is apparently no longer an automatic purchase order.
The differences become sharper at the collection level. Tudor’s Submariner gained 2.7%, while its Black Bay fell 1.6%. Cartier’s Roadster rose 1.4%, while the Rolex GMT-Master dropped 1.8% and Omega’s Speedmaster lost 1.7%. Buyers are making distinctions within brands, leaving little support for the idea that a familiar logo guarantees rising resale values.
The clearest examples of a recovery passing some watches by are IWC and Panerai. Their WatchCharts indexes have barely moved over the past year: IWC is down 0.1%, while Panerai is up 0.4%. By comparison, Cartier gained 8.3%and Omega rose 5.0%. Even within IWC, the Ingenieur’s 5.6% annual gain contrasts with declines of 0.5% apiece for the more heavily traded Pilot’s Watch and Portugieser collections.
Crucially, stagnant prices do not mean nobody is buying. WatchCharts estimates that IWC and Panerai sales grew 18% and 9% year over year, respectively. Buyers are participating; they simply are not agreeing to higher prices. IWC’s 10.8% increase in U.S. retail prices has done little to change that equation. Its in-production watches now trade an average 41% below retail, compared with 39% a year earlier. Raising the price tag, it turns out, does not require the secondary market to applaud.
For collectors, those gaps create substantial buying opportunities. WatchCharts puts the IWC Portugieser Chronograph IW371605 around $5,100, against $9,200 retail, and the Panerai Luminor PAM422 around $5,500, against $13,200 retail. Those discounts are not evidence that a rebound is imminent. They show where buyers and sellers currently find agreement—and, while pre-owned supply keeps pace with demand, that agreement may remain well below the boutique price.
