Winners Take All: How a Handful of Brands Dominate the Secondary Market
The secondary market for luxury watches is experiencing significant growth, with industry data revealing that a small number of brands dominate the market. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet together account for over 50% of the total transaction value, highlighting the disparity in value distribution among brands. While most major brands saw increases in secondary market unit volume, the performance of specific references—especially popular sport watches—remains crucial for collectors and dealers. The data suggests that the market is not only expanding but also increasingly professionalized, with brands beginning to engage in certified pre-owned (CPO) programs to enhance their control over secondary transactions. Despite the overall growth, the market dynamics reveal a winner-take-all scenario where a few trophy models capture most of the value, while others struggle. Brands like A. Lange & Söhne and F.P. Journe show varying levels of market activity and value retention, with psychological factors like buyer sentiment playing a significant role. The emergence of CPO programs indicates a shift towards greater brand involvement in the secondary market, aiming to protect their reputation and improve customer experience. Although the market is currently benefiting a select few, potential inefficiencies may arise, providing opportunities for contrarian buyers in the long term.
